The Pudding
The Geographic Divide of Oscar Films
Last year, The New York Times mapped 50 TV shows’ popularity by zip code. Here are similar maps for Oscar-nominated films in 2017.

Story: Matt Daniels Maps: Ilia Blinderman, Russell Samora

A few months ago, we were blown away by these brilliant maps by Josh Katz, which visualized how a TV show such as The Daily Show is watched by a completely different geography than 16 and Pregnant.

It’s not surprising – there are thousands of TV shows. If there was even a small audience for reality alpaca farming, TruTV would greenlight it (e.g., a dramatized reenactment of car towing made it to 4 seasons).

Movies are different. With high barriers to entry, we get situations such as #oscarssowhite or male-dominated scripts. Is this year’s Oscar academy still safely appealing to a historically city-based, white audience? Using trailer views on YouTube as an approximation for who watched what, here are the geographic hotbeds of this year’s Oscar-nominees.

The Geography of Best Picture Nominees ‘17

Film’s YouTube Trailer Views, by Region

arrival

la la land

manchester by the sea

lion

hacksaw ridge

hell or high water

fences

moonlight

hidden figures

Under-indexes

Over-indexes

POPULARITY COMPARED TO NATIONAL AVG.

More Popular on the

West-Coast

More Popular on the

East-Coast

Midwest

Relative to other Oscar years, this line-up feels geographically diverse. Every region of the US is covered. Mel Gibson’s quasi-religious war film Hacksaw Ridge has decent coverage throughout the middle US. Conversely, Moonlight, an entirely non-white cast that explores sexuality, drugs, and poverty in the south was a crowd favorite in Florida and Georgia.

Let’s look at each film in more detail.

Best Picture Nominees

la la land

Coastal States

arrival

Pacific Northwest

moonlight

Southeast/ATL

manchester by the sea

Northeast, SoCal

lion

Southwest

hacksaw ridge

Rural States

hell or high water

South

fences

Midwest/Plains

hidden figures

Carolinas

Hot in the Coastal States

Popularity of la la land

film trailer views on YouTube

Austin, TXIndianapolis, IN

Under-indexes

Over-indexes

POPULARITY COMPARED TO NATIONAL AVG.

La La Land is among the favorites to win Best Picture in 2017. Among all the nominees, it has strongest coverage in coastal states, likely where most of the voting academy resides. Fittingly, it was also popular in one of the only liberal hubs of Texas: Austin. There was also a surprising contingency in Indianapolis.

Hot in the Pacific Northwest

Popularity of arrival

film trailer views on YouTube

Norfolk, VAMichiganColorado

Under-indexes

Over-indexes

POPULARITY COMPARED TO NATIONAL AVG.

Interestingly, Arrival, a sci-fi film about alien cephalopods, was disproportionately popular in the Pacific Northwest (Oregon and Washington) and Colorado, homes for some of the most liberal marijuana laws in the US.

Hot in the Southeast/ATL

Popularity of moonlight

film trailer views on YouTube

Atlanta, GADes Moines, Iowa

Under-indexes

Over-indexes

POPULARITY COMPARED TO NATIONAL AVG.

Moonlight had the most surprising geographic diversity. For a film that opposes every connotation of #oscarssowhite, it had disproportionate interest in Des Moines, Austin, Madison, and Bloomington (albeit all college towns).

Hot in the Northeast, SoCal

Popularity of manchester by the sea

film trailer views on YouTube

Film's NamesakeSouthern California

Under-indexes

Over-indexes

POPULARITY COMPARED TO NATIONAL AVG.

Manchester by the Sea had the highest interest in New England (thematically a large part of the film) and California. Southerners, however, might be surprised to learn of its popularity.

Hot in the Southwest

Popularity of lion

film trailer views on YouTube

WisconsinBaltimore/DC MetroWashington/Oregon

Under-indexes

Over-indexes

POPULARITY COMPARED TO NATIONAL AVG.

Lion’s audience seems nearly identical to Manchester by the Sea, with the exception of disproportionate popularity in at the corners of Arizona, New Mexico, Utah, and Colorado.

Hot in the Rural States

Popularity of hacksaw ridge

film trailer views on YouTube

Western MichiganBirthplace of ProtagonistParts of Appalachia

Under-indexes

Over-indexes

POPULARITY COMPARED TO NATIONAL AVG.

Hacksaw Ridge, a Mel Gibson biopic about a WWII soldier, covers most of Trump country, with little concentration in major cities. Fittingly, cities such as San Francisco strongly under-index in popularity.

Hot in the South

Popularity of hell or high water

film trailer views on YouTube

WyomingMississippiSet in Texas

Under-indexes

Over-indexes

POPULARITY COMPARED TO NATIONAL AVG.

Hell or High Water screamed Texan culture. The film was disproportionately popular in most of the state, bleeding into parts of New Mexico (where it was filmed) and Oklahoma.

Hot in the Midwest/Plains

Popularity of fences

film trailer views on YouTube

Omaha, NEBirmingham, AL

Under-indexes

Over-indexes

POPULARITY COMPARED TO NATIONAL AVG.

Fences had a unique geography, including states that were absent from most of the other nominees: Alabama, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri, and parts of Kentucky.

Hot in the Carolinas

Popularity of hidden figures

film trailer views on YouTube

Houston, TXColumbus, OHSet in Virginia

Under-indexes

Over-indexes

POPULARITY COMPARED TO NATIONAL AVG.

Hidden Figures was huge in the coastal south. While the film was set in Virginia, buzz spread to North Carolina, South Carolina, and the Atlanta-region of Georgia.

Methodology

Some counties in the US, like Los Angeles or New York, have really high populations. Others are sparsely populated, like North Slope Borough in Alaska, which has one person for every 10 square miles of land. In order to control for population effects — to make sure our maps fairly indicated regional interest, rather than places where people watched the most YouTube videos — we looked at each movie’s trailers, and calculated what percentage they constituted of all US YouTube views in the film’s opening week. This gave us a national baseline. We then ran the same analysis for each county. Finally, to get a measure of county interest, we looked at the degree to which each county’s score exceeded or fell below the national average. Prior to mapping, we smoothed the data by calculating Getis-Ord Gi* z-scores for each county’s 20 nearest neighbours. So, to recap in English: we looked at whether a county’s viewing habits for each trailer were higher or lower than the rest of America.