BY Matthew Daniels, The Pudding
and Mike Beuoy, inpredictable.com

Quantifying The '15 - '16 NBA Season's

Most Unlikely Comebacks

Using Historical Data to Rank Statistically Improbable Wins

I hate stats like “Golden State had an unbelievable 21 point comeback.”

There’s no context. Did the comeback take 8 minutes or 24 minutes? An 8 minute, 21 point comeback would be more interesting. If every team in NBA history lost when down by 21 with 8 minutes left, but Golden State was the first to win, that’d be noteworthy. Big comebacks aren’t impressive. Unlikely comebacks are. Like Reggie Miller’s historic 8 points in 9 seconds.

We used Inpredictable.com’s win-probability model to identify the most statistically unlikely comebacks this season. Given a point-deficit, time remaining, and ball possession, it says how likely a team will win/lose based on how other teams have fared in that exact scenario over the past 10 years.

Let’s begin with the most unlikely comebacks from this NBA season so far.

UNLIKELY COMEBACK #1: HOU VS MIA - APR 12, 2016

The comeback from down 21 in the 3rd
(96% of teams historically lose)

From 2006 - Today, Teams in Heat's Situation Tend to Lose

50%

of the time

96% of Teams will Lose when Down by 21, at Q3 9:27, and with the Ball

low-point

The Heat are down by 0 48 Minutes to go at tip-off

This was more about defense (or lack of offense) for Houston. At Q3 9:48, they were up by 21 points. But by the end of the 3rd, the game was tied. Miami went on a 10 minute, 29-8 run.

Even more depressing was that Houston kept it going, putting up 14 points in the 4th. Miami secured a near-100% win probability with 3 minutes left in the game.

UNLIKELY COMEBACK #2: OKC VS GSW - FEB 27, 2016

against blow a 9 point lead in final 3 minutes

From 2006 - Today, Teams in GSW's Situation Tend to Lose

72%

of the time

98% of Teams will Lose when Down by 9, at Q4 3:45 without the Ball

low-point

Golden State is down by 0 48 Minutes to go at tip-off

This was one of the most memorable moments of the season: Golden State was down by 9 with 3 minutes left in the game. With 14 seconds left, OKC was still up by 4. Yet Klay Thompson proceeds to score a quick layup and Durant commits a turnover + shooting foul with two seconds left, allowing Golden State to tie.

Later in OT, Curry will hit an impossible game-winner three.

UNLIKELY COMEBACK #3: BOS VS CLE - FEB 05, 2016

The win the impossible: down by 4 with 7 seconds to go

Teams in Boston's Situation Tend to Lose

92%

of the time

~100% of Teams will Lose when Down by 5, 9 seconds to go, and the ball

low-point

Celtics are down by 0 48 Minutes to go at tip-off

Let’s visualize the final minute: with 7 seconds left, the Celtics have the ball and are down by 4. Turner is fouled and scores on a layup. It’s now a two point game. He then misses the free throw, Celtics get the offensive rebound, and Bradley hits a 3 pointer: 5 points in 4 seconds. Tragic.

UNLIKELY COMEBACK #4: BOS VS CLE - MAR 02, 2016

The overcome a 14 pt deficit with 5 minutes to go

Teams in LA's Situation Tend to Lose

50%

of the time

~100% of Teams will Lose when Down by 14 at Q4 5:03

low-point

The Clippers are down by 0 48 Minutes to go at tip-off

The Clippers are down by 14 with 5 minutes left. Statistically, a comeback from this point is extremely rare. But OKC then goes 1 of 9 and commits three turnovers, blowing another game that they had in the bag.

ps. Props to Mike Beuoy for providing the data from his win-probability model on Inpredictable.com.