I hate stats like “Golden State had an unbelievable 21 point comeback.”
There’s no context. Did the comeback take 8 minutes or 24 minutes? An 8 minute, 21 point comeback would be more interesting. If every team in NBA history lost when down by 21 with 8 minutes left, but Golden State was the first to win, that’d be noteworthy. Big comebacks aren’t impressive. Unlikely comebacks are. Like Reggie Miller’s historic 8 points in 9 seconds.
We used Inpredictable.com’s win-probability model to identify the most statistically unlikely comebacks this season. Given a point-deficit, time remaining, and ball possession, it says how likely a team will win/lose based on how other teams have fared in that exact scenario over the past 10 years.
Let’s begin with the most unlikely comebacks from this NBA season so far.