The NBA Redrafted 2.0
Five years ago we redrafted the NBA with data. We figured it was time to update with more recent drafts, and ask some new questions.
So let’s begin. Hmm...I’m guessing you are a fan of the New York Knicks? No shame in admitting it.
Hindsight is 20/20, but it probably stings a bit to see what could have been for the
New York’s actual picks and the better players available.
Where do these better players come from? The short version: each player gets a rating of 0–100 from a blend of four advanced stats based on their top five seasons. The upgrade pick is a player that was drafted lower but has a higher rating. Squads are made up of the biggest rating upgrades. See the method section for details.
Drafting is hard. Here is how often each team selects the best player available in the first round.
Select a team below to see their player report card. A player’s grade is based on the size of the gap between their rating and the best player available.
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First Round Picks Report Card
Anthony Davis A+ 0 2012 Chris Paul A+ 0 2005 David West A+ 0 2003 J.R. Smith A 2 2004 Darren Collison A- 1 2009 Buddy Hield A- 5 2016 Quincy Pondexter* B- 6 2010 Julian Wright C 15 2007 Cedric Simmons C 23 2006 Austin Rivers C- 15 2012 Hilton Armstrong D+ 20 2006 -
First Round Picks Report Card
Eddie Jones A+ 0 1994 Kobe Bryant* A+ 0 1996 Doug Christie* A+ 0 1992 Derek Fisher A+ 0 1996 Vlade Divac A+ 0 1989 Josh Hart* A+ 0 2017 Larry Nance Jr. A 2 2015 Kyle Kuzma* A 2 2017 Elden Campbell A- 1 1990 Travis Knight* A- 5 1996 Andrew Bynum A- 6 2005 Brandon Ingram A- 7 2016 D'Angelo Russell A- 11 2015 John Celestand A- 13 1999 Lonzo Ball B+ 6 2017 George Lynch B 3 1993 Sasha Vujačić B 4 2004 Anthony Peeler B 5 1992 Brian Cook B 11 2003 Jordan Farmar B- 3 2006 Mark Madsen B- 7 2000 Tyronn Lue* C+ 7 1998 Kareem Rush* C+ 14 2002 Sam Jacobson C+ 15 1998 Devean George C 2 1999 Julius Randle C 4 2014 Javaris Crittenton C 16 2007 -
First Round Picks Report Card
LeBron James A+ 0 2003 Terrell Brandon A+ 0 1991 Derek Anderson A+ 0 1997 Brevin Knight A+ 0 1997 Zydrunas Ilgauskas A+ 0 1996 Anderson Varejão* A 1 2004 Kyrie Irving B+ 3 2011 Bob Sura B+ 3 1995 Chris Mills B+ 3 1993 Ante Žižić* B+ 10 2016 Andre Miller B 4 1999 Christian Eyenga B 15 2009 Tristan Thompson B- 9 2011 Chris Mihm* B- 17 2000 Shannon Brown C+ 6 2006 John Morton C+ 9 1989 DeSagana Diop C+ 15 2001 Tyler Zeller* C 9 2012 Danny Ferry* C 12 1989 J.J. Hickson C 12 2008 Luke Jackson C 23 2004 Dajuan Wagner C 29 2002 Dion Waiters C- 16 2012 Sergey Karasev C- 18 2013 Trajan Langdon D+ 18 1999 Anthony Bennett D 38 2013 Vitaly Potapenko D- 14 1996 -
First Round Picks Report Card
Tim Duncan A+ 0 1997 Kawhi Leonard* A+ 0 2011 Derrick White A+ 0 2017 Tony Parker A 1 2001 Dejounte Murray A- 2 2016 Livio Jean-Charles A- 13 2013 George Hill B+ 1 2008 Beno Udrih B+ 2 2004 Cory Alexander B 5 1995 Ian Mahinmi B 9 2005 Nikola Milutinov B 11 2015 Tiago Splitter B- 1 2007 Sean Elliott B- 7 1989 James Anderson B- 9 2010 Cory Joseph C+ 4 2011 Dwayne Schintzius C+ 16 1990 Kyle Anderson C 2 2014 -
First Round Picks Report Card
Donovan Mitchell* A+ 0 2017 Eric Murdock A+ 0 1991 Rudy Gobert* A+ 0 2013 Andrei Kirilenko A+ 1 1999 Scott Padgett A+ 1 1999 Greg Ostertag A- 1 1995 Tony Bradley* A- 4 2017 Jacque Vaughn B+ 4 1997 Rodney Hood B+ 8 2014 Trey Lyles B+ 14 2015 Gordon Hayward B 1 2010 DeShawn Stevenson B 5 2000 Kris Humphries B 12 2004 Ronnie Brewer B- 2 2006 Blue Edwards B- 3 1989 Kirk Snyder B- 12 2004 Sasha Pavlović B- 16 2003 Eric Maynor B- 21 2009 Deron Williams C+ 1 2005 Kosta Koufos C+ 8 2008 Curtis Borchardt* C+ 19 2002 Raül López C 10 2001 Enes Freedom C 12 2011 Alec Burks C 15 2011 Morris Almond C- 10 2007 Trey Burke* C- 12 2013 Luther Wright C- 12 1993 Quincy Lewis D+ 19 1999 Dante Exum D+ 21 2014 -
First Round Picks Report Card
Shawn Marion A+ 0 1999 Amar'e Stoudemire A+ 0 2002 Steve Nash A+ 0 1996 Michael Finley A+ 0 1995 Devin Booker A 1 2015 Wesley Person A 1 1994 Leandro Barbosa* A- 4 2003 Archie Goodwin* A- 12 2013 Oliver Miller B+ 2 1992 Antonio Lang B+ 10 1994 Marquese Chriss* B+ 11 2016 Robin Lopez B 7 2008 Dragan Bender B 30 2016 Josh Jackson B 38 2017 Jake Tsakalidis B- 7 2000 Mario Bennett B- 10 1995 Tyler Ennis B- 14 2014 Malcolm Mackey C+ 6 1993 Pat Garrity* C+ 7 1998 Kenny Battle* C+ 7 1989 Maciej Lampe* C+ 10 2003 Casey Jacobsen C+ 12 2002 Žarko Čabarkapa C+ 20 2003 Earl Clark C+ 29 2009 T.J. Warren C 8 2014 Markieff Morris C 11 2011 Alando Tucker C- 8 2007 Alex Len C- 12 2013 Kendall Marshall C- 25 2012 -
First Round Picks Report Card
Gary Payton A+ 0 1990 Kevin Durant A+ 0 2007 Russell Westbrook A+ 0 2008 Shawn Kemp A+ 0 1989 James Harden A 1 2009 Domantas Sabonis* A 1 2016 Dana Barros A- 2 1989 Serge Ibaka B+ 2 2008 Desmond Mason B+ 4 2000 Luke Ridnour B+ 7 2003 Nick Collison B+ 8 2003 Josh Huestis B+ 10 2014 Cameron Payne B+ 15 2015 Terrance Ferguson B+ 20 2017 Ervin Johnson B 3 1993 Sherell Ford B 10 1995 Steven Adams B- 2 2013 Reggie Jackson B- 3 2011 Jeff Green* B- 7 2007 D.J. White* B- 8 2008 Vladimir Stepania B- 9 1998 Vladimir Radmanović B- 10 2001 Ansu Sesay* B- 10 1998 Cole Aldrich* B- 11 2010 Johan Petro B- 19 2005 Rich King B- 21 1991 Andre Roberson* C+ 1 2013 Jeremy Lamb* C+ 3 2012 Perry Jones C+ 15 2012 Robert Swift C+ 20 2004 Byron Mullens* C+ 22 2009 Mouhamed Sene D+ 27 2006 Mitch McGary D 18 2014 -
First Round Picks Report Card
Grant Hill A+ 0 1994 Tayshaun Prince A+ 0 2002 Jerome Williams A+ 0 1996 Arron Afflalo A 2 2007 Allan Houston A 3 1993 Scot Pollard A- 4 1997 Andre Drummond B+ 1 2012 Theo Ratliff B+ 2 1995 Carlos Delfino B+ 6 2003 Luke Kennard B+ 9 2017 Stanley Johnson B+ 22 2015 Lindsey Hunter B 4 1993 Jason Maxiell B 11 2005 Henry Ellenson B 22 2016 Rodney Stuckey B- 3 2007 Greg Monroe B- 4 2010 Lou Roe B- 8 1995 Bill Curley* B- 14 1994 Austin Daye B- 21 2009 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope C+ 4 2013 Lance Blanks C+ 17 1990 Mateen Cleaves C+ 20 2000 Rodney White C 22 2001 Brandon Knight C- 18 2011 Darko Miličić D- 25 2003 -
First Round Picks Report Card
Paul George A+ 0 2010 Dale Davis A+ 0 1991 Danny Granger A+ 0 2005 Myles Turner A 1 2015 Travis Best A 1 1995 Roy Hibbert* A- 7 2008 Austin Croshere B+ 8 1997 T.J. Leaf B+ 14 2017 Jamaal Tinsley* B 3 2001 Tyler Hansbrough B 19 2009 Al Harrington B- 4 1998 David Harrison B- 5 2004 Fred Jones B- 7 2002 Primož Brezec B- 7 2000 Malik Sealy B- 9 1992 Jeff Foster* C+ 2 1999 Solomon Hill C 7 2013 Dyron Nix* C 9 1989 George McCloud C 10 1989 Brandon Rush* C 17 2008 Erick Dampier C- 6 1996 Miles Plumlee C- 7 2012 Shawne Williams C- 11 2006 Scott Haskin C- 15 1993 Jonathan Bender* D 22 1999 -
First Round Picks Report Card
Jason Kidd A+ 0 1994 Dirk Nowitzki* A+ 0 1998 Josh Howard A+ 0 2003 Jamal Mashburn A- 2 1993 Sean Rooks A- 2 1992 Lucious Harris B+ 3 1993 Justin Anderson B+ 11 2015 Devin Harris* B 8 2004 Jim Jackson B 10 1992 Chris Anstey* B 12 1997 Deon Thomas B 13 1994 Dennis Smith Jr. B 32 2017 Donnell Harvey* B- 10 2000 Loren Meyer B- 12 1995 Cherokee Parks B- 13 1995 Rodrigue Beaubois* B- 13 2009 Tony Dumas B- 19 1994 Dominique Jones* C+ 8 2010 Pavel Podkolzin* C+ 14 2004 Courtney Alexander* C+ 21 2000 Maurice Ager C 11 2006 Doug Smith C 23 1991 Shane Larkin* C- 13 2013 Jared Cunningham* D+ 19 2012 Randy White D 26 1989 Samaki Walker D- 15 1996 -
First Round Picks Report Card
Pau Gasol* A+ 0 2001 Mike Conley A+ 0 2007 Kyle Lowry A+ 0 2006 Shane Battier A 2 2001 DeMarre Carroll A- 2 2009 Rudy Gay* B+ 3 2006 Greivis Vásquez B 3 2010 Drew Gooden B 8 2002 Jarell Martin B 9 2015 Roy Rogers B 12 1996 Hakim Warrick B 18 2005 Wade Baldwin B 21 2016 Stromile Swift B- 15 2000 Xavier Henry B- 16 2010 Dahntay Jones* B- 17 2003 Bryant Reeves C+ 19 1995 Mike Bibby C 5 1998 Antonio Daniels C 5 1997 Darrell Arthur* C 6 2008 Shareef Abdur-Rahim C 7 1996 Felipe López* C 13 1998 Troy Bell* C 21 2003 O.J. Mayo* C- 20 2008 Tony Wroten D+ 19 2012 Jordan Adams D 19 2014 Hasheem Thabeet F 32 2009 -
First Round Picks Report Card
Ben Simmons A+ 0 2016 Andre Iguodala A+ 0 2004 Jrue Holiday A+ 0 2009 Anthony Parker* A+ 0 1997 Thaddeus Young B+ 1 2007 Nikola Vučević B+ 2 2011 John Salmons* B+ 3 2002 Clarence Weatherspoon B+ 4 1992 Furkan Korkmaz B+ 4 2016 Petteri Koponen B+ 8 2007 Jason Smith* B+ 11 2007 Dario Šarić* B+ 13 2014 Jahlil Okafor B+ 25 2015 Joel Embiid B 1 2014 Allen Iverson B 3 1996 Samuel Dalembert B 3 2001 Speedy Claxton B 4 2000 Jayson Williams* B 5 1990 Shawn Bradley B 8 1993 Timothé Luwawu-Cabarrot B 9 2016 Markelle Fultz B 20 2017 Efthimios Rentzias* B- 13 1996 B.J. Tyler B- 19 1994 Nazr Mohammed* C+ 5 1998 Craig Brackins* C+ 10 2010 Nerlens Noel* C 9 2013 Michael Carter-Williams C 9 2013 Greg Graham* C 12 1993 Kenny Payne C 15 1989 Marreese Speights C 16 2008 Jumaine Jones* C- 1 1999 Tim Thomas* C- 4 1997 Rodney Carney* C- 13 2006 Evan Turner C- 16 2010 Jerry Stackhouse D+ 4 1995 Larry Hughes D+ 6 1998 Arnett Moultrie* D+ 18 2012 Sharone Wright D+ 32 1994 -
First Round Picks Report Card
Mookie Blaylock A+ 0 1989 Jarrett Allen A+ 0 2017 P.J. Brown A+ 0 1992 Kenny Anderson A 2 1991 Ryan Anderson A 5 2008 Kenyon Martin A- 2 2000 Richard Jefferson* A- 3 2001 Rondae Hollis-Jefferson* A- 5 2015 Brook Lopez B+ 3 2008 Caris LeVert* B+ 4 2016 Derrick Coleman B 2 1990 Nenad Krstić B 5 2002 Jason Collins* B 9 2001 Chris McCullough B 10 2015 Mason Plumlee B- 1 2013 Derrick Favors B- 5 2010 Zoran Planinić B- 16 2003 Yinka Dare B- 25 1994 Antoine Wright B- 26 2005 Kerry Kittles C+ 3 1996 Damion James* C+ 8 2010 Josh Boone C+ 9 2006 Ed O'Bannon C+ 22 1995 Tate George C+ 22 1990 Terrence Williams C+ 33 2009 Keith Van Horn* C 6 1997 Rex Walters C 10 1993 Brandon Armstrong* C 15 2001 Sean Williams C 16 2007 MarShon Brooks* C- 11 2011 Marcus Williams D+ 14 2006 -
First Round Picks Report Card
Shaquille O'Neal A+ 0 1992 Dwight Howard A+ 0 2004 Anfernee Hardaway* A+ 0 1993 Jameer Nelson* A 3 2004 Mike Miller A- 2 2000 Matt Harpring A- 4 1998 Brian Evans A- 8 1996 Stanley Roberts B+ 4 1991 Dennis Scott B+ 6 1990 Elfrid Payton* B+ 8 2014 Brooks Thompson B+ 8 1994 Jonathan Isaac B+ 11 2017 J.J. Redick B 3 2006 Nick Anderson B 4 1989 Mario Hezonja B 27 2015 Corey Maggette* B- 4 1999 Victor Oladipo B- 5 2013 Bison Dele B- 6 1991 Courtney Lee B- 6 2008 David Vaughn B- 11 1995 Andrew Nicholson B- 15 2012 Johnny Taylor B- 17 1997 Aaron Gordon C+ 3 2014 Maurice Harkless* C+ 5 2012 Daniel Orton C+ 5 2010 Geert Hammink C+ 6 1993 Fran Vázquez C+ 31 2005 Steven Hunter C 13 2001 Jeryl Sasser C 14 2001 Michael Doleac C 17 1998 Ryan Humphrey* C 19 2002 Reece Gaines C 20 2003 -
First Round Picks Report Card
Dwyane Wade A+ 0 2003 Bam Adebayo A+ 0 2017 Steve Smith A- 1 1991 Caron Butler A- 2 2002 Dorell Wright A- 6 2004 Sherman Douglas B+ 1 1989 Glen Rice B+ 3 1989 Kurt Thomas B+ 4 1995 Justise Winslow B+ 13 2015 Charles Smith B 7 1997 Khalid Reeves B 8 1994 Mark Sanford B 9 1997 George Ackles B 11 1991 Martin Müürsepp* B 13 1996 Willie Burton B- 15 1990 Alec Kessler* B- 32 1990 Wayne Simien C+ 18 2005 Daequan Cook* C 11 2007 Harold Miner C 22 1992 Shabazz Napier* C- 9 2014 Norris Cole* C- 12 2011 Michael Beasley D+ 22 2008 Tim James D 15 1999 -
First Round Picks Report Card
Karl-Anthony Towns A+ 0 2015 Kevin Garnett A+ 0 1995 Kevin Love* A+ 0 2008 Howard Eisley A- 2 1994 Christian Laettner A- 4 1992 Tyus Jones* A- 4 2015 Zach LaVine B+ 8 2014 Kris Dunn B+ 10 2016 Donyell Marshall B 1 1994 Wayne Ellington B 6 2009 Gerald Glass B 16 1990 Justin Patton* B 27 2017 Stephon Marbury* B- 4 1996 Rasho Nesterović B- 4 1998 Marlon Maxey B- 6 1992 Corey Brewer B- 8 2007 Felton Spencer B- 12 1990 Isaiah Rider B- 13 1993 Paul Grant B- 15 1997 Rashad McCants B- 21 2005 Gorgui Dieng* C+ 2 2013 Lazar Hayward* C+ 4 2010 Sherron Mills C+ 5 1993 Wally Szczerbiak C+ 7 1999 Pooh Richardson C+ 8 1989 Luc Longley C+ 10 1991 Ndudi Ebi C+ 13 2003 Jonny Flynn C+ 38 2009 Randy Foye* C 8 2006 Andrew Wiggins* C 11 2014 Ricky Rubio C- 5 2009 Wesley Johnson C- 15 2010 Shabazz Muhammad* D+ 15 2013 William Avery D+ 25 1999 Derrick Williams D+ 29 2011 -
First Round Picks Report Card
Tracy McGrady A+ 0 1997 Pascal Siakam A+ 0 2016 OG Anunoby A 1 2017 DeMar DeRozan A 2 2009 Jakob Poeltl A 2 2016 Morris Peterson A- 1 2000 Damon Stoudamire A- 2 1995 Delon Wright A- 3 2015 Vince Carter* B+ 2 1998 Ed Davis B+ 2 2010 Mamadou N'Diaye* B+ 14 2000 Charlie Villanueva B 14 2005 Chris Bosh B- 1 2003 Joey Graham B- 23 2005 Marcus Camby C+ 5 1996 Terrence Ross C+ 6 2012 Jonas Valančiūnas C+ 8 2011 Lucas Nogueira* C 13 2013 Chris Jefferies* C 13 2002 Andrea Bargnani C 14 2006 Michael Bradley C 18 2001 Rafael Araújo C- 25 2004 Bruno Caboclo D+ 12 2014 Aleksandar Radojević D 27 1999 -
First Round Picks Report Card
Jayson Tatum A+ 0 2017 Paul Pierce A+ 0 1998 Rick Fox A+ 0 1991 Chauncey Billups A- 1 1997 Dee Brown A- 1 1990 Rajon Rondo* A- 1 2006 Joe Johnson A- 3 2001 Al Jefferson A- 3 2004 Delonte West A- 3 2004 Tony Allen A- 3 2004 Jaylen Brown A- 5 2016 Terry Rozier A- 5 2015 Avery Bradley B+ 3 2010 Kendrick Perkins* B+ 6 2003 Greg Minor* B 6 1994 John Thomas* B 6 1997 Eric Williams B 8 1995 R.J. Hunter B 10 2015 Ron Mercer B 15 1997 Gerald Green B 15 2005 Guerschon Yabusele B 21 2016 Dontae' Jones* B- 15 1996 Marcus Banks* B- 18 2003 Marcus Smart C+ 2 2014 Kedrick Brown C+ 18 2001 Jérôme Moïso C+ 19 2000 James Young C+ 21 2014 Fab Melo C+ 21 2012 Kelly Olynyk* C 2 2013 Jared Sullinger C 4 2012 Antoine Walker C 6 1996 Acie Earl C 12 1993 Joseph Forte C 17 2001 J.R. Giddens C- 11 2008 Eric Montross C- 16 1994 JaJuan Johnson* D+ 15 2011 Michael Smith D+ 16 1989 -
First Round Picks Report Card
Charlie Ward A+ 0 1994 David Lee A+ 0 2005 Kristaps Porziņģis A 1 2015 Greg Anthony A 3 1991 Nate Robinson* A- 5 2005 Channing Frye A- 6 2005 Jerian Grant* A- 11 2015 Danilo Gallinari B+ 5 2008 Monty Williams B+ 5 1994 Walter McCarty B+ 7 1996 Hubert Davis B 5 1992 Toney Douglas* B 7 2009 Frank Ntilikina B 30 2017 Wilson Chandler B- 3 2007 John Wallace B- 11 1996 Jordan Hill B- 22 2009 Tim Hardaway Jr. C+ 1 2013 Mike Sweetney C+ 25 2003 Jerrod Mustaf C+ 28 1990 Iman Shumpert C 10 2011 Mardy Collins C 10 2006 Frank Williams* C 14 2002 Renaldo Balkman C- 8 2006 Mirsad Türkcan* C- 23 1998 Frédéric Weis D 25 1999 -
First Round Picks Report Card
Eric Bledsoe* A+ 0 2010 Quentin Richardson A+ 1 2000 Brent Barry* A 1 1995 Marko Jarić A 2 2000 Eric Piatkowski* A- 4 1994 Loy Vaught A- 6 1990 Eric Gordon A- 9 2008 Lamar Odom B+ 3 1999 Keyon Dooling* B 9 2000 Darius Miles B 10 2000 Maurice Taylor B 12 1997 Brice Johnson B 16 2016 Chris Kaman B 17 2003 Chris Wilcox B- 6 2002 LeRon Ellis B- 14 1991 Blake Griffin C+ 2 2009 Al-Farouq Aminu C+ 3 2010 Lamond Murray C+ 7 1994 Terry Dehere C+ 10 1993 Elmore Spencer C+ 12 1992 Melvin Ely C+ 16 2002 Randy Woods C+ 16 1992 Shaun Livingston C+ 18 2004 Yaroslav Korolev C+ 32 2005 Bo Kimble C+ 34 1990 Reggie Bullock C 2 2013 Brian Skinner C 9 1998 Al Thornton C- 21 2007 Lorenzen Wright D 13 1996 C.J. Wilcox D 14 2014 Michael Olowokandi F 34 1998 -
First Round Picks Report Card
Toni Kukoč A+ 0 1990 Jimmy Butler A+ 0 2011 Luol Deng* A 2 2004 Kirk Hinrich A 3 2003 Joakim Noah A- 1 2007 Elton Brand A- 2 1999 Jamal Crawford* A- 2 2000 Bobby Portis A- 9 2015 Metta World Peace B+ 2 1999 B.J. Armstrong B+ 2 1989 Nikola Mirotić* B+ 3 2011 Taj Gibson B+ 4 2009 Tyson Chandler* B+ 5 2001 Lauri Markkanen* B+ 8 2017 James Johnson B+ 8 2009 Denzel Valentine B+ 9 2016 Dalibor Bagarić B+ 13 2000 Thabo Sefolosha* B 5 2006 Trenton Hassell B 5 2001 Ben Gordon B 9 2004 Dickey Simpkins B 12 1994 Mark Randall B 13 1991 Corie Blount B- 5 1993 Keith Booth B- 9 1997 Derrick Rose C+ 8 2008 Jason Caffey C+ 9 1995 Eddy Curry C+ 19 2001 Marcus Fizer C+ 24 2000 Tony Snell C 7 2013 Tyrus Thomas* C 10 2006 Jeff Sanders C 15 1989 Jay Williams C 28 2002 Corey Benjamin C- 14 1998 Doug McDermott* C- 16 2014 Stacey King D+ 17 1989 Marquis Teague D+ 17 2012 -
First Round Picks Report Card
Stephen Curry A+ 0 2009 Tim Hardaway A+ 0 1989 Chris Webber* A 1 1993 Latrell Sprewell A 1 1992 Chris Gatling A- 3 1991 Tyrone Hill A- 4 1990 Kevon Looney A- 4 2015 Jason Richardson A- 5 2001 Marco Belinelli A- 9 2007 Byron Houston* A- 9 1992 Nemanja Nedović* A- 12 2013 Damian Jones B+ 3 2016 Mike Dunleavy B+ 4 2002 Harrison Barnes B+ 4 2012 Troy Murphy B+ 4 2001 Klay Thompson B 2 2011 Andris Biedriņš B 9 2004 Victor Alexander B 9 1991 Carlos Rogers* B 11 1994 Shaun Vandiver B 13 1991 Mickaël Piétrus B 15 2003 Clifford Rozier B 16 1994 Brandan Wright* B- 8 2007 Festus Ezeli B- 8 2012 Billy Owens* B- 9 1991 Les Jepsen B- 18 1990 Ike Diogu B- 24 2005 Jiří Welsch* C+ 13 2002 Antawn Jamison* C 4 1998 Steve Logan C 12 2002 Anthony Randolph C 20 2008 Ekpe Udoh C- 15 2010 Adonal Foyle D+ 11 1997 Vonteego Cummings* D+ 12 1999 Patrick O'Bryant D+ 27 2006 Joe Smith D 10 1995 Todd Fuller F 24 1996 -
First Round Picks Report Card
Damian Lillard A+ 0 2012 Jermaine O'Neal A+ 0 1996 Aaron McKie A 2 1994 Brandon Roy* A 3 2006 Nicolas Batum* A 3 2008 LaMarcus Aldridge* A- 1 2006 Zach Randolph A- 3 2001 Kelvin Cato* A- 4 1997 Tracy Murray* B+ 3 1992 Jarrett Jack* B+ 6 2005 Joel Freeland B+ 8 2006 Martell Webster B+ 12 2005 Dave Johnson B+ 12 1992 Caleb Swanigan B+ 20 2017 Travis Outlaw B 12 2003 Zach Collins* B 19 2017 CJ McCollum B- 3 2013 Bonzi Wells* B- 5 1998 Elliot Williams B- 9 2010 Luke Babbitt* B- 10 2010 Viktor Khryapa* B- 10 2004 Gary Trent* B- 11 1995 Randolph Childress* B- 17 1995 Rudy Fernández* C+ 5 2007 Sergio Rodríguez* C+ 6 2006 Sergei Monia C+ 13 2004 Erick Barkley C+ 13 2000 Sebastian Telfair C+ 14 2004 Alaa Abdelnaby C+ 14 1990 Jerryd Bayless* C+ 15 2008 Qyntel Woods C+ 17 2002 Victor Claver C+ 19 2009 James Robinson C 9 1993 Meyers Leonard C 12 2012 Byron Irvin C 13 1989 Nolan Smith D+ 21 2011 Greg Oden F 22 2007 -
First Round Picks Report Card
Sam Cassell A+ 0 1993 Yao Ming A 1 2002 Othella Harrington A 4 1996 Robert Horry A- 3 1992 Sam Dekker A- 12 2015 Patrick Patterson B+ 2 2010 Steve Francis* B 6 1999 Carl Herrera* B 8 1990 Serge Zwikker B 9 1997 Luther Head B 11 2005 Rodrick Rhodes B 12 1997 Clint Capela B- 1 2014 John Turner B- 15 1991 Bryce Drew B- 17 1998 Aaron Brooks C+ 5 2007 Michael Dickerson C+ 11 1998 Boštjan Nachbar C+ 11 2002 Eddie Griffin* C+ 15 2001 Jason Collier* C+ 21 2000 Kenny Thomas C 2 1999 Marcus Morris C 8 2011 Terrence Jones C 8 2012 Donatas Motiejūnas* C 13 2011 Dave Jamerson* C 30 1990 -
First Round Picks Report Card
Giannis Antetokounmpo A+ 0 2013 Jon Barry* A- 2 1992 Brandon Jennings A- 7 2009 Ray Allen* B+ 1 1996 Vin Baker B+ 4 1993 Thon Maker B+ 15 2016 D.J. Wilson B+ 17 2017 Tobias Harris* B 2 2011 Joel Przybilla* B 6 2000 Larry Sanders B 8 2010 T.J. Ford B 13 2003 Anthony Avent* B 15 1991 Rashad Vaughn B 19 2015 Lee Mayberry B- 6 1992 Todd Day B- 12 1992 Eric Mobley B- 21 1994 Glenn Robinson C+ 9 1994 Shawn Respert* C+ 21 1995 John Henson C 9 2012 Frank Kornet C 9 1989 Marcus Haislip C 22 2002 Jabari Parker C- 21 2014 Yi Jianlian C- 27 2007 Joe Alexander C- 32 2008 Andrew Bogut D+ 5 2005 Robert Traylor* D- 19 1998 -
First Round Picks Report Card
Alonzo Mourning A+ 0 1992 Kemba Walker A 2 2011 Kendall Gill A- 1 1990 Baron Davis A- 2 1999 Larry Johnson A- 4 1991 Raymond Felton A- 7 2005 Frank Kaminsky B+ 14 2015 P.J. Hairston* B+ 14 2014 Jared Dudley B 1 2007 Jamaal Magloire B 4 2000 Tony Delk B 6 1996 Emeka Okafor B 10 2004 Kevin Lynch B 10 1991 Gerald Henderson B 16 2009 Malik Monk B 28 2017 Ricky Davis B- 5 1998 Scott Burrell B- 6 1993 D.J. Augustin B- 10 2008 Alexis Ajinça B- 13 2008 George Zídek B- 13 1995 Sean May B- 27 2005 Michael Kidd-Gilchrist C 9 2012 Cody Zeller C 9 2013 Bismack Biyombo* C- 16 2011 Noah Vonleh C- 18 2014 Kirk Haston C- 21 2001 J.R. Reid D+ 15 1989 Adam Morrison D+ 31 2006 -
First Round Picks Report Card
Josh Smith A+ 0 2004 Jeff Teague A 1 2009 John Collins A 1 2017 Al Horford A 2 2007 Boris Diaw A 2 2003 Jason Terry A- 2 1999 Leon Smith* A- 13 1999 DeAndre' Bembry B+ 8 2016 Taurean Prince* B+ 10 2016 Dion Glover B+ 10 1999 Priest Lauderdale B+ 11 1996 Stacey Augmon B 5 1991 Rodney Monroe B 11 1991 Jordan Crawford* B- 6 2010 Alan Henderson B- 7 1995 Dan Dickau* B- 8 2002 Adam Keefe B- 11 1992 Josh Childress B- 12 2004 Ed Gray B- 13 1997 Rumeal Robinson B- 14 1990 DerMarr Johnson B- 17 2000 Dennis Schröder C+ 4 2013 Roy Marble C 13 1989 Acie Law C 22 2007 John Jenkins C- 11 2012 Doug Edwards C- 15 1993 Cal Bowdler C- 17 1999 Roshown McLeod C- 19 1998 Shelden Williams C- 20 2006 Adreian Payne D+ 22 2014 Marvin Williams D 10 2005 -
First Round Picks Report Card
Dikembe Mutombo A+ 0 1991 Ty Lawson* A 1 2009 Bobby Jackson* A 1 1997 Nenê* A 2 2002 Jamal Murray A 2 2016 Jalen Rose A 3 1994 Gary Harris* A 4 2014 Jusuf Nurkić* A- 1 2014 Terry Mills* A- 5 1990 Malik Beasley A- 5 2016 Bryant Stith B+ 4 1992 Juancho Hernangómez B+ 5 2016 Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf B+ 8 1990 Danny Fortson* B+ 9 1997 Tyler Lydon* B+ 19 2017 Rodney Rogers B 7 1993 LaPhonso Ellis B 8 1992 Linas Kleiza* B 12 2005 Kevin Brooks* B 16 1991 Emmanuel Mudiay B 27 2015 Carmelo Anthony B- 2 2003 James Posey B- 2 1999 Kenneth Faried B- 3 2011 Evan Fournier C+ 4 2012 Keon Clark* C+ 9 1998 Anthony Cook* C+ 10 1989 Jordan Hamilton* C+ 11 2011 Julius Hodge C+ 25 2005 Todd Lichti C 13 1989 Mark Macon C 17 1991 Nikoloz Tskitishvili C 29 2002 Tony Battie C- 9 1997 Antonio McDyess* D+ 6 1995 Raef LaFrentz D+ 7 1998 -
First Round Picks Report Card
Hedo Türkoğlu A+ 0 2000 Kevin Martin A 1 2004 Gerald Wallace A 2 2001 De'Aaron Fox A- 5 2017 Willie Cauley-Stein A- 6 2015 Skal Labissière* A- 6 2016 Bogdan Bogdanović* A- 7 2014 Harry Giles* A- 15 2017 DeMarcus Cousins B+ 1 2010 Peja Stojaković B+ 1 1996 Pete Chilcutt B+ 2 1991 Walt Williams B+ 4 1992 Anthony Bonner B+ 7 1990 Duane Causwell B+ 8 1990 Justin Jackson* B+ 15 2017 Lionel Simmons B 8 1990 Corliss Williamson B 8 1995 Omri Casspi B 10 2009 Francisco García B 13 2005 Travis Mays B 18 1990 Malachi Richardson* B 18 2016 Georgios Papagiannis* B 23 2016 Brian Grant B- 4 1994 Donté Greene* B- 11 2008 Tariq Abdul-Wahad B- 14 1997 Spencer Hawes C+ 13 2007 Jason Thompson C+ 15 2008 Pervis Ellison C 13 1989 Bobby Hurley C 21 1993 Jason Williams D+ 8 1998 Quincy Douby D+ 17 2006 Ben McLemore D+ 19 2013 Nik Stauskas D+ 23 2014 Jimmer Fredette* D+ 24 2011 Royce White* D+ 26 2012 Thomas Robinson D+ 28 2012 Tyreke Evans D 10 2009 -
First Round Picks Report Card
John Wall B+ 1 2010 Trevor Booker* B+ 3 2010 Tom Gugliotta B+ 4 1992 Kelly Oubre Jr.* B+ 12 2015 Anžejs Pasečņiks* B+ 20 2017 Bradley Beal B 2 2012 Gheorghe Mureșan B 3 1993 Brendan Haywood* B 5 2001 LaBradford Smith B 13 1991 Otto Porter Jr. B- 4 2013 Richard Hamilton B- 6 1999 JaVale McGee B- 8 2008 Don MacLean* B- 8 1992 Jared Jeffries B- 9 2002 Kevin Séraphin* B- 10 2010 Etan Thomas* B- 12 2000 Calbert Cheaney B- 13 1993 Juan Dixon B- 13 2002 Jarvis Hayes B- 19 2003 Rasheed Wallace C+ 1 1995 Juwan Howard C+ 7 1994 Nick Young C+ 11 2007 Kwame Brown C 19 2001 Chris Singleton C- 16 2011 Tom Hammonds D+ 16 1989 Oleksiy Pecherov D+ 17 2006 Jan Veselý D+ 25 2011
More recent players will have less extreme ratings since their best producing seasons are still ahead of them. Take Markelle Fultz who gets a “B”. Real life tells us he is probably going to be considered a bust. But he is being compared to the likes of Tatum, who will likely widen the rating gap more as he enters his prime, which will lower Fultz’s grade.
*Note: Players with an asterisk played their rookie year for a team that didn’t draft them, usually due to a draft-day trade.
The busts and steals of every modern NBA draft class through 2017
The number of spots a player should have risen or dropped by year.
The 2010 draft class was perhaps the least exciting (or most accurate), with the most players of any class drafted close to their correct spot. It was also the only class the data suggests had no players that should have dropped 20+ spots.
Data and Methods
Data from Basketball Reference. The four advanced stats used to create a player’s rating were VORP, Win Shares, RAPTOR WAR, and Wins Added. No all-in-one advanced stat is perfect, so I chose a blend that satisfied the eye test (see table below). Each stat was normalized then averaged together to create a master scale of a player’s rating from 0 to 100. Ratings were based on a player’s top five seasons to find the balance between prime and longevity (an average NBA career is 4.5 years).
Only showing draft classes through 2017 because they have at least five years of data. Upgrade choices in the Could Have Been teams were first selected from top 10 picks, then searched beyond those if there weren’t enough to fill the top five. Draft trades were ignored since swaps usually are contingent on player availability and often include multiple players or money.
Report card grades for draft picks were calculated as follows: a player’s potential was the difference between their rating (from above) and the best player available in that draft at their pick. If they were the best player available (i.e., a potential of 0), they got an A+. The remaining grades were evenly distributed, with a uniform number of players receiving each grade value.
Top 50 Players Since the 1989 Draft
A player’s rating is a blend of four advanced stats based on their top five seasons, then scaled to the 🐐who is #1 in every stat. Stats below are scaled, not raw values.
Rank | Name | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | LeBron James | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
2 | Kevin Garnett | 86 | 84 | 86 | 86 | 87 |
3 | Chris Paul | 85 | 79 | 89 | 77 | 96 |
4 | Stephen Curry | 81 | 72 | 79 | 83 | 90 |
5 | James Harden | 80 | 80 | 84 | 67 | 87 |
6 | Kevin Durant | 80 | 79 | 90 | 75 | 75 |
7 | Tim Duncan | 79 | 69 | 82 | 90 | 75 |
8 | Shaquille O'Neal | 78 | 71 | 86 | 83 | 73 |
9 | Dirk Nowitzki | 78 | 72 | 89 | 80 | 72 |
10 | Dwyane Wade | 74 | 72 | 74 | 71 | 79 |
11 | Kobe Bryant | 74 | 69 | 78 | 70 | 78 |
12 | Tracy McGrady | 67 | 71 | 68 | 57 | 73 |
13 | Russell Westbrook | 66 | 67 | 66 | 64 | 65 |
14 | Shawn Marion | 65 | 55 | 71 | 63 | 69 |
15 | Paul Pierce | 64 | 57 | 67 | 70 | 62 |
16 | Jason Kidd | 62 | 56 | 55 | 68 | 70 |
17 | Dwight Howard | 61 | 47 | 71 | 69 | 57 |
18 | Mookie Blaylock | 61 | 56 | 54 | 61 | 72 |
19 | Kawhi Leonard | 61 | 58 | 61 | 59 | 66 |
20 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | 61 | 65 | 67 | 55 | 55 |
21 | Gary Payton | 60 | 62 | 71 | 32 | 76 |
22 | Vince Carter | 60 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 60 |
23 | Anthony Davis | 60 | 59 | 67 | 54 | 59 |
24 | Chauncey Billups | 59 | 53 | 71 | 54 | 58 |
25 | Tim Hardaway | 59 | 53 | 58 | 59 | 66 |
26 | Manu Ginóbili | 58 | 53 | 59 | 57 | 65 |
27 | Ray Allen | 58 | 51 | 62 | 56 | 63 |
28 | Nikola Jokić | 58 | 65 | 65 | 46 | 56 |
29 | Damian Lillard | 58 | 58 | 64 | 49 | 60 |
30 | Paul George | 57 | 52 | 56 | 59 | 64 |
31 | Steve Nash | 57 | 50 | 65 | 54 | 60 |
32 | Grant Hill | 56 | 58 | 61 | 48 | 56 |
33 | Elton Brand | 55 | 52 | 67 | 46 | 55 |
34 | Kyle Lowry | 55 | 48 | 57 | 56 | 58 |
35 | Allen Iverson | 54 | 54 | 59 | 49 | 56 |
36 | Pau Gasol | 54 | 51 | 69 | 49 | 48 |
37 | Eddie Jones | 54 | 47 | 56 | 54 | 60 |
38 | Draymond Green | 54 | 40 | 44 | 74 | 59 |
39 | Baron Davis | 53 | 45 | 45 | 57 | 63 |
40 | Rudy Gobert | 53 | 43 | 67 | 48 | 52 |
41 | Jimmy Butler | 52 | 49 | 59 | 46 | 55 |
42 | Anfernee Hardaway | 52 | 48 | 54 | 49 | 55 |
43 | Andrei Kirilenko | 51 | 53 | 49 | 47 | 56 |
44 | Kevin Love | 51 | 47 | 59 | 46 | 50 |
45 | Rasheed Wallace | 50 | 42 | 53 | 54 | 51 |
46 | Dikembe Mutombo | 50 | 38 | 57 | 60 | 43 |
47 | Blake Griffin | 49 | 45 | 57 | 47 | 48 |
48 | DeAndre Jordan | 49 | 36 | 63 | 56 | 40 |
49 | Chris Webber | 49 | 52 | 54 | 41 | 48 |
50 | Mike Conley | 49 | 43 | 49 | 48 | 55 |