B a t t i n g b y t h e N u m b e r s
1993 Toronto Blue Jays | ||||||||||
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Pos. | Player | Attributes (0-5) | ||||||||
1 | H e n d e r s o n |
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2 | W h i t e |
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3 | A l o m a r |
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4 | C a r t e r |
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5 | O l e r u d |
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6 | M o l i t o r |
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7 | F e r n a n d e z |
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8 | S p r a g u e |
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9 | B o r d e r s |
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"2024" Toronto Blue Jays | ||||||||||
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Pos. | Player | Attributes (0-5) | ||||||||
1 | A l o m a r |
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2 | F e r n a n d e z |
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3 | M o l i t o r |
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4 | O l e r u d |
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5 | H e n d e r s o n |
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6 | C a r t e r |
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7 | W h i t e |
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8 | S p r a g u e |
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9 | B o r d e r s |
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This is the batting lineup of the ’93 Blue Jays, who beat the Philadelphia Phillies on Joe Carter’s famous game-winning home run in Game 6 of the World Series.
Carter was the classic cleanup hitter of that era — a pure slugger who didn’t walk much, or even hit for a very high average, but could hit the ball out of the yard.
He was joined in the batting order by other archetypal players for their lineup slot, from Rickey Henderson (widely regarded as the greatest leadoff man ever) and speedster Devon White. In the middle of the order were all-around hitters Robbie Alomar, John Olerud, and Paul Molitor.
For most of baseball history, there was a set pattern of roles in the batting lineup, passed down to managers through decades of experience. But those rules are changing as baseball evolves, especially with analytics increasingly guiding decisions. The 1993 Blue Jays might not look the same in 2024.
We rated each player relative to the league on a 0-5 scale in four major categories: batting average, power, walks, and speed. We grouped players by their lineup slot, and looked for the traits that each spot had in common — and how that has changed over time. Those trends allowed us to then predict where a batter with a particular set of skills might tend to bat, depending on the era (see methods for more).
We put that concept to work by estimating how Toronto's old-school lineup order might change if they played today. Here’s what the hypothetical “2024” Toronto Blue Jays might look like.
Today, teams prioritize better overall hitters in the leadoff spot, making Hall of Famer Alomar Toronto’s most likely No. 1 hitter. Perhaps surprisingly, Henderson and White shift lower, as teams have become more willing to bat their stronger hitters deeper in the order.
Olerud and Molitor move up due to their all-around skills, and Tony Fernandez assumes an important role in the modern analytical lineup, manning the No. 2 hole.
And Carter, who would likely be penciled in further down in the lineup, may never have gotten the chance to hit that iconic HR from the cleanup spot.
That’s just one example. Plenty of other teams and players would be known for different spots in the order if they plied their trade in today’s more analytically oriented era of baseball. So let’s run through the old and new rules for building a lineup, using players who best typified each slot then and now.
B a t t i n g 1 s t
What are these attributes?
- Hitting for Average: Batting average (a classic stat showing the player’s ratio of hits to at-bats)
- Hitting for Power: Isolated power (a measure that tracks a player’s extra-base hits per AB)
- Drawing Walks: Walk rate (the percentage of the player’s plate appearances that end in a walk). Walks can be a good indicator of a hitter's plate discipline and overall offensive ability.
- Running Speed: Speed score (a stat created by Bill James, the godfather of Sabermetrics, which estimates a player’s speed from various different other statistics)
Managers used to prize speed at the top of the lineup over just about everything else. Leadoff hitters needed to get on base too — preferably by rapping out a single, because swinging-and-missing was taboo. But once a leadoff hitter was standing on first, they needed to be able to steal second even when the pitcher and catcher knew they were going to take off.
But nowadays, managers want slightly more power out of their leadoff hitters, and they’re willing to trade some speed for it. A few modern No. 1 hitters can do it all, stealing bases and hitting home runs in equal measure. Mookie Betts of the Dodgers and Ronald Acuña Jr. of the Braves are great examples of this, but they are rare talents. More commonly, you will see a player like Marcus Semien atop the lineup, who gets on base with walks and hits with above-average power, in addition to his decent running speed.
I c o n i c l e a d o f f ( # 1 ) h i t t e r s
B a t t i n g 2 n d
What are these attributes?
- Hitting for Average: Batting average (a classic stat showing the player’s ratio of hits to at-bats)
- Hitting for Power: Isolated power (a measure that tracks a player’s extra-base hits per AB)
- Drawing Walks: Walk rate (the percentage of the player’s plate appearances that end in a walk). Walks can be a good indicator of a hitter's plate discipline and overall offensive ability.
- Running Speed: Speed score (a stat created by Bill James, the godfather of Sabermetrics, which estimates a player’s speed from various different other statistics)
The classic No. 2 hitter is all about “bat control.” That might mean hitting for a solid average, as Ozzie Smith, “The Wizard of Oz,” often did in his career. But it might also mean deliberately hitting the ball “behind the runner” to reduce the risk of a double play — or even to lay down a perfect sacrifice bunt. The important thing was to make sure the leadoff hitter got into scoring position for the big bats to drive in later. And a little speed from this spot never hurts, especially since it helps those ground balls turn into infield hits.
No place in the lineup showcases how the game has changed more than the No. 2 slot. Remember how the second spot in the order used to be all about making contact and moving runners over? Now, the data say that your best overall hitter should hit second rather than third, as originally believed. At the No. 2 spot, they will come to the plate more often, and less frequently with two outs. This is why better overall hitters — and especially better power hitters, like Trout, Seager, and Ohtani, hit in the 2-hole more than they ever did in the past.
I c o n i c # 2 h i t t e r s
B a t t i n g 3 r d
What are these attributes?
- Hitting for Average: Batting average (a classic stat showing the player’s ratio of hits to at-bats)
- Hitting for Power: Isolated power (a measure that tracks a player’s extra-base hits per AB)
- Drawing Walks: Walk rate (the percentage of the player’s plate appearances that end in a walk). Walks can be a good indicator of a hitter's plate discipline and overall offensive ability.
- Running Speed: Speed score (a stat created by Bill James, the godfather of Sabermetrics, which estimates a player’s speed from various different other statistics)
The No. 3 slot was traditionally reserved for the best hitter, or more generally, the biggest star on the team. In the 3-hole, you were expected to hit for power and average, driving in the leadoff man if he was on base, or setting up the cleanup hitter for RBI chances of his own. It was a matter of pride for big names to bat in this slot.
However, as a result of research showing that top all-around hitters should bat second, the 3-hole has lost some of its prestige. Today’s No. 3 hitters are no slouches, of course. But as more players with a mix of elite skills get moved elsewhere, teams now tend to place greater focus on one particular attribute here, asking less of the role in terms of speed and other facets of the game.
B a t t i n g 4 t h
What are these attributes?
- Hitting for Average: Batting average (a classic stat showing the player’s ratio of hits to at-bats)
- Hitting for Power: Isolated power (a measure that tracks a player’s extra-base hits per AB)
- Drawing Walks: Walk rate (the percentage of the player’s plate appearances that end in a walk). Walks can be a good indicator of a hitter's plate discipline and overall offensive ability.
- Running Speed: Speed score (a stat created by Bill James, the godfather of Sabermetrics, which estimates a player’s speed from various different other statistics)
Other than leadoff, this is the only spot with its own nickname: the cleanup hitter. That’s because No. 4 hitters “clean up the bases” by slugging home the runners in front of them. Historically, power has always been the most important attribute in the cleanup spot, with on-base percentage taking on less significance (the job of slots 1-3 was to get on base and set the table for the cleanup hitter). Even strikeouts were more tolerated here, if it meant a trade-off for more power. Cleanup hitters didn’t traditionally need to be fast.
But the cleanup role is changing a lot. It’s still a place for some teams to put burly sluggers, but the typical No. 4 hitter is now less powerful — and patient — than in the 1990s (it’s also getting very slightly faster on average, weirdly enough). No lineup slot has seen a bigger decline in Weighted Runs Created Plus — a measure of batting effectiveness relative to league average — than the cleanup spot.
B a t t i n g 5 t h - 7 t h
What are these attributes?
- Hitting for Average: Batting average (a classic stat showing the player’s ratio of hits to at-bats)
- Hitting for Power: Isolated power (a measure that tracks a player’s extra-base hits per AB)
- Drawing Walks: Walk rate (the percentage of the player’s plate appearances that end in a walk). Walks can be a good indicator of a hitter's plate discipline and overall offensive ability.
- Running Speed: Speed score (a stat created by Bill James, the godfather of Sabermetrics, which estimates a player’s speed from various different other statistics)
Nos. 5-7 are where the lineup gets flexible. Managers often use those slots as lesser versions of the cleanup spot, perhaps featuring a power hitter with a poor batting average or a low walk rate. One traditional rule was also to alternate the handedness of these spots, depending on which side of the plate the cleanup hitter batted from. For example, a lefty No. 4 hitter would be followed by a righty No. 5, a lefty No. 6 and so forth. This ensured that the opposing manager couldn’t neutralize an entire block of the lineup with one reliever late in games.
In the modern game, these slots have undergone a surprising evolution, from a place for plodding sluggers to a spot to stash speedsters! As power bats have begun to take over the leadoff slot, batters who would have been leadoff hitters in an earlier era are increasingly moving down the order, often penciled in at Nos. 5-7 now.
B a t t i n g 8 t h - 9 t h
What are these attributes?
- Hitting for Average: Batting average (a classic stat showing the player’s ratio of hits to at-bats)
- Hitting for Power: Isolated power (a measure that tracks a player’s extra-base hits per AB)
- Drawing Walks: Walk rate (the percentage of the player’s plate appearances that end in a walk). Walks can be a good indicator of a hitter's plate discipline and overall offensive ability.
- Running Speed: Speed score (a stat created by Bill James, the godfather of Sabermetrics, which estimates a player’s speed from various different other statistics)
In an earlier era of the game, slots 8 and 9 were defined by holding the worst hitters on the team. Back when National League pitchers hit, they would almost always hit ninth (except when oddball managers like Joe Maddon or Tony La Russa batted the pitcher eighth).
In the modern analytics era, these spots are gaining ground on the rest of the lineup, even after accounting for the absence of hitting pitchers. Already speedy, the 8th and 9th spots have gotten faster (again, you have to stash the batters who formerly would have hit leadoff somewhere), and AL No. 9 hitters walk more than ever — another sign that modern managers are spreading their batting talent more evenly throughout the lineup.
c r e d i t s
Written by Neil Paine. Editing, design and development by Michelle Pera-McGhee. Baseball card design assist by Matt Daniels.
m e t h o d s
To rate each player’s skill set, we first needed a collection of statistics that measured performance in each area of the game. To that end, we tied the following attributes to specific metrics, all adjusted relative to the league:
- Hitting for Average: Batting average (a classic stat showing the player’s ratio of hits to at-bats)
- Hitting for Power: Isolated power (a measure that tracks a player’s extra-base hits per AB)
- Drawing Walks: Walk rate (the percentage of the player’s plate appearances that end in a walk). Walks can be a good indicator of a hitter's plate discipline and overall offensive ability.
- Running Speed: Speed score (a stat created by Bill James, the godfather of Sabermetrics, which estimates a player’s speed from various different other statistics)
Each season, players were rated on a 0-5 scale based on their percentile rank (relative to the league) for each category. To create the skill profile for each lineup position, we grouped players by the slot where they had the highest percentage of plate appearances and averaged their attributes.
To create the hypothetical “modern” Toronto Blue Jays, we put the players’ skill scores in a logistic regression model that attempted to predict the probability of a player with any given profile batting at each slot in the order. Those models were conducted on data from two different eras: The Sabermetrics Era of MLB (2010-present), when teams began the widespread use of analytics to help construct their lineups; and the Old-School Era (1970-2009), when teams still made decisions based on gut instinct and received wisdom.
To ensure that every team’s lineup added to 100% probabilities at each spot in the order — and that every player’s odds added to 100% across all of their possible batting slots — we used a method known as an iterative proportional fitting procedure (IPFP) to adjust the matrix of raw probabilities created by the regression model(s).
With those regressions, we can see how a player with the exact same breakdown of skills might bat in two very different places in the order, depending on whether the manager was thinking about the traditional rules of lineup construction or basing their decisions on more analytics-driven research.
We went through each of Toronto’s hitters and picked the player with the highest odds of being slotted into each spot, starting with the player who had the highest overall odds (John Olerud in the cleanup role, at 37.3%) and going through until every player was assigned every spot in the order.